{"metadata":{"dataThrough":"2026-08-17","generatedAt":"2026-08-17T23:40:38.500Z","requestedEnd":"2026-08-18","model":"rules-v1.2-transition-proxy","symbols":["SPY","^VIX","TLT","QQQ","IWM","XLK","XLF","XLY","XLP","XLE","XLV","XLI","XLU","XLB","XLRE","XLC","SOXX","IGV","SMH","DRAM","BTCUSD","XSW","IBB","KRE","XRT","XHB","XOP","XME","IYT","EWY","^KS11","^N225"]},"latest":{"weekEnd":"2026-08-17","code":"bull_quiet","baselineCode":"bull_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"牛市低波","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.68,"transition":{"pressure":0,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"bull_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"牛市高波","probabilities":{"bull_quiet":0.6261,"bull_volatile":0.1769,"sideways_volatile":0.1451,"bear_volatile":0.0518},"triggers":[]},"thesis":"稳步上行、低波动、相关性下降，适合横截面 alpha 和分散化多头。","drivers":["13 周 SPY 收益 4.5%","VIX 15.2","行业相关 0.1"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":-0.00473,"spyOpen":776.18,"spyHigh":776.77,"spyLow":772.51,"spyClose":772.67,"ret4w":0.04121,"ret13w":0.04532,"realizedVol20":0.1318,"vixClose":15.19,"sectorCorrelation20":0.1009,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.3663,"drawdown52w":-0.0067,"trendEfficiency20":0.2759,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.00473,"downVolumeZ20":-1.0026,"downVolumeZ63":-1.2371,"distributionDay":false,"distributionDate":null,"shockDownDay":false}},"assets":[{"symbol":"SPY","displaySymbol":"SPY","name":"S&P 500","group":"Market","code":"bull_quiet","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.54,"weeklyReturn":-0.00473,"ret13w":0.04532,"relativeToSpy13w":0,"realizedVol20":0.1318,"divergentFromMarket":false},{"symbol":"QQQ","displaySymbol":"QQQ","name":"Nasdaq 100","group":"Style","code":"sideways_volatile","labelZh":"震荡高波","label":"Sideways Volatile","confidence":0.74,"weeklyReturn":-0.00164,"ret13w":0.02954,"relativeToSpy13w":-0.01578,"realizedVol20":0.2324,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"IWM","displaySymbol":"IWM","name":"Russell 2000","group":"Style","code":"bull_quiet","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.73,"weeklyReturn":-0.00338,"ret13w":0.09532,"relativeToSpy13w":0.05,"realizedVol20":0.1476,"divergentFromMarket":false},{"symbol":"XLK","displaySymbol":"XLK","name":"Technology","group":"Sector","code":"bull_volatile","labelZh":"牛市高波","label":"Bull Volatile","confidence":0.57,"weeklyReturn":0.00163,"ret13w":0.07977,"relativeToSpy13w":0.03445,"realizedVol20":0.3237,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"XLF","displaySymbol":"XLF","name":"Financials","group":"Sector","code":"bull_quiet","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.96,"weeklyReturn":-0.00997,"ret13w":0.12681,"relativeToSpy13w":0.08149,"realizedVol20":0.1078,"divergentFromMarket":false},{"symbol":"XLY","displaySymbol":"XLY","name":"Consumer Discretionary","group":"Sector","code":"sideways_volatile","labelZh":"震荡高波","label":"Sideways Volatile","confidence":0.71,"weeklyReturn":-0.01227,"ret13w":0.00189,"relativeToSpy13w":-0.04343,"realizedVol20":0.2431,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"XLP","displaySymbol":"XLP","name":"Consumer Staples","group":"Sector","code":"sideways_quiet","labelZh":"震荡低波","label":"Sideways Quiet","confidence":0.67,"weeklyReturn":-0.01638,"ret13w":0.00047,"relativeToSpy13w":-0.04485,"realizedVol20":0.1588,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"XLE","displaySymbol":"XLE","name":"Energy","group":"Sector","code":"bull_quiet","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.67,"weeklyReturn":0.01082,"ret13w":0.05283,"relativeToSpy13w":0.00751,"realizedVol20":0.2423,"divergentFromMarket":false},{"symbol":"XLV","displaySymbol":"XLV","name":"Health Care","group":"Sector","code":"trend_accelerating","labelZh":"趋势加速","label":"Trend-Accelerating","confidence":0.6,"weeklyReturn":-0.00191,"ret13w":0.15127,"relativeToSpy13w":0.10595,"realizedVol20":0.1435,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"XLI","displaySymbol":"XLI","name":"Industrials","group":"Sector","code":"bull_quiet","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.67,"weeklyReturn":-0.00102,"ret13w":0.08705,"relativeToSpy13w":0.04173,"realizedVol20":0.1672,"divergentFromMarket":false},{"symbol":"XLU","displaySymbol":"XLU","name":"Utilities","group":"Sector","code":"sideways_quiet","labelZh":"震荡低波","label":"Sideways Quiet","confidence":0.72,"weeklyReturn":-0.00293,"ret13w":0.00707,"relativeToSpy13w":-0.03825,"realizedVol20":0.1386,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"XLB","displaySymbol":"XLB","name":"Materials","group":"Sector","code":"bull_quiet","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.55,"weeklyReturn":-0.00571,"ret13w":0.03857,"relativeToSpy13w":-0.00675,"realizedVol20":0.1881,"divergentFromMarket":false},{"symbol":"XLRE","displaySymbol":"XLRE","name":"Real Estate","group":"Sector","code":"sideways_quiet","labelZh":"震荡低波","label":"Sideways Quiet","confidence":0.58,"weeklyReturn":-0.00972,"ret13w":0.03701,"relativeToSpy13w":-0.00831,"realizedVol20":0.1374,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"XLC","displaySymbol":"XLC","name":"Communication Services","group":"Sector","code":"sideways_volatile","labelZh":"震荡高波","label":"Sideways Volatile","confidence":0.65,"weeklyReturn":-0.01886,"ret13w":-0.04531,"relativeToSpy13w":-0.09063,"realizedVol20":0.2455,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"SOXX","displaySymbol":"SOX","name":"Semiconductors","group":"Industry","code":"bull_volatile","labelZh":"牛市高波","label":"Bull Volatile","confidence":0.64,"weeklyReturn":0.01581,"ret13w":0.0995,"relativeToSpy13w":0.05418,"realizedVol20":0.5572,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"IGV","displaySymbol":"IGV","name":"Software","group":"Industry","code":"trend_accelerating","labelZh":"趋势加速","label":"Trend-Accelerating","confidence":0.96,"weeklyReturn":-0.02008,"ret13w":0.11124,"relativeToSpy13w":0.06592,"realizedVol20":0.3509,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"SMH","displaySymbol":"SMH","name":"Mega-cap Semiconductors","group":"Industry","code":"bull_volatile","labelZh":"牛市高波","label":"Bull Volatile","confidence":0.54,"weeklyReturn":0.01063,"ret13w":0.06782,"relativeToSpy13w":0.0225,"realizedVol20":0.4572,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"DRAM","displaySymbol":"DRAM","name":"Memory & Storage","group":"Custom","code":"trend_accelerating","labelZh":"趋势加速","label":"Trend-Accelerating","confidence":0.93,"weeklyReturn":0.05356,"ret13w":0.1818,"relativeToSpy13w":0.13648,"realizedVol20":0.9995,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"BTCUSD","displaySymbol":"BTC","name":"Bitcoin","group":"Custom","code":"sideways_volatile","labelZh":"震荡高波","label":"Sideways Volatile","confidence":0.52,"weeklyReturn":-0.02953,"ret13w":-0.00886,"relativeToSpy13w":-0.04652,"realizedVol20":0.1821,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"XSW","displaySymbol":"XSW","name":"Equal-weight Software","group":"Industry","code":"trend_accelerating","labelZh":"趋势加速","label":"Trend-Accelerating","confidence":0.96,"weeklyReturn":-0.02281,"ret13w":0.24939,"relativeToSpy13w":0.20407,"realizedVol20":0.3529,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"IBB","displaySymbol":"IBB","name":"Biotech","group":"Industry","code":"trend_accelerating","labelZh":"趋势加速","label":"Trend-Accelerating","confidence":0.82,"weeklyReturn":0.01851,"ret13w":0.21039,"relativeToSpy13w":0.16507,"realizedVol20":0.1833,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"KRE","displaySymbol":"KRE","name":"Regional Banks","group":"Industry","code":"bull_quiet","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.72,"weeklyReturn":-0.00693,"ret13w":0.15559,"relativeToSpy13w":0.11027,"realizedVol20":0.1212,"divergentFromMarket":false},{"symbol":"XRT","displaySymbol":"XRT","name":"Retail","group":"Industry","code":"bull_quiet","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.77,"weeklyReturn":-0.01585,"ret13w":0.10684,"relativeToSpy13w":0.06152,"realizedVol20":0.2174,"divergentFromMarket":false},{"symbol":"XHB","displaySymbol":"XHB","name":"Homebuilders","group":"Industry","code":"bull_quiet","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.65,"weeklyReturn":-0.00761,"ret13w":0.12324,"relativeToSpy13w":0.07791,"realizedVol20":0.2825,"divergentFromMarket":false},{"symbol":"XOP","displaySymbol":"XOP","name":"Oil & Gas E&P","group":"Industry","code":"trend_accelerating","labelZh":"趋势加速","label":"Trend-Accelerating","confidence":0.78,"weeklyReturn":0.01585,"ret13w":0.05295,"relativeToSpy13w":0.00763,"realizedVol20":0.3408,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"XME","displaySymbol":"XME","name":"Metals & Mining","group":"Industry","code":"sideways_volatile","labelZh":"震荡高波","label":"Sideways Volatile","confidence":0.72,"weeklyReturn":0.0082,"ret13w":0.02171,"relativeToSpy13w":-0.02361,"realizedVol20":0.3839,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"IYT","displaySymbol":"IYT","name":"Transports","group":"Industry","code":"bull_quiet","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.76,"weeklyReturn":-0.00137,"ret13w":0.09055,"relativeToSpy13w":0.04522,"realizedVol20":0.1466,"divergentFromMarket":false},{"symbol":"EWY","displaySymbol":"EWY","name":"iShares MSCI South Korea ETF","group":"International","code":"sideways_volatile","labelZh":"震荡高波","label":"Sideways Volatile","confidence":0.74,"weeklyReturn":0.02982,"ret13w":0.03489,"relativeToSpy13w":-0.01043,"realizedVol20":0.6996,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"^KS11","displaySymbol":"KOSPI","name":"KOSPI Composite","group":"International","code":"stagflationary","labelZh":"滞胀冲击","label":"Stagflationary","confidence":0.59,"weeklyReturn":0.11491,"ret13w":-0.12573,"relativeToSpy13w":-0.16338,"realizedVol20":0.9103,"divergentFromMarket":true},{"symbol":"^N225","displaySymbol":"Nikkei 225","name":"Nikkei 225","group":"International","code":"trend_accelerating","labelZh":"趋势加速","label":"Trend-Accelerating","confidence":0.54,"weeklyReturn":0.0076,"ret13w":0.13819,"relativeToSpy13w":0.09287,"realizedVol20":0.3389,"divergentFromMarket":true}],"recentWeeks":[{"weekEnd":"2026-06-05","code":"bull_volatile","baselineCode":"sideways_volatile","baselineLabelZh":"震荡高波","labelZh":"牛市高波","label":"Bull Volatile","confidence":0.89,"transition":{"pressure":85.4,"status":"switch","switched":true,"likelyNext":"bull_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"牛市高波","probabilities":{"bull_volatile":0.8064,"sideways_volatile":0.1212,"bear_volatile":0.0724},"triggers":["SPY weekly selloff -2.5%","single-day drop -2.6%","high-volume down day z=7.5","VIX crossed 21.5","20D trend efficiency 0"]},"thesis":"价格上涨但波动扩张，主题拥挤和追涨资金推高收益同时增加回撤风险。","drivers":["SPY weekly selloff -2.5%","single-day drop -2.6%","high-volume down day z=7.5","13 周 SPY 收益 9.7%"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":-0.02502,"spyOpen":755.36,"spyHigh":760.4,"spyLow":735.52,"spyClose":737.55,"ret4w":0.00816,"ret13w":0.09692,"realizedVol20":0.1279,"vixClose":21.51,"sectorCorrelation20":0.143,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.5497,"drawdown52w":-0.02899,"trendEfficiency20":0.0009,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.02581,"downVolumeZ20":7.4634,"downVolumeZ63":0.9569,"distributionDay":true,"distributionDate":"2026-06-05","shockDownDay":true}},{"weekEnd":"2026-06-12","code":"bull_quiet","baselineCode":"bull_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"牛市低波","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.87,"transition":{"pressure":24.6,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"sideways_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"震荡高波","probabilities":{"bull_quiet":0.3296,"sideways_volatile":0.3222,"bull_volatile":0.3097,"bear_volatile":0.0386},"triggers":["high-volume down day z=3.2","20D trend efficiency 0.03"]},"thesis":"稳步上行、低波动、相关性下降，适合横截面 alpha 和分散化多头。","drivers":["13 周 SPY 收益 12%","VIX 17.7","行业相关 0.18"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":0.00569,"spyOpen":743.36,"spyHigh":746.9,"spyLow":722.59,"spyClose":741.75,"ret4w":-0.00858,"ret13w":0.11998,"realizedVol20":0.1468,"vixClose":17.68,"sectorCorrelation20":0.1776,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.5582,"drawdown52w":-0.02346,"trendEfficiency20":0.0285,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.01577,"downVolumeZ20":3.2052,"downVolumeZ63":0.7831,"distributionDay":false,"distributionDate":null,"shockDownDay":false}},{"weekEnd":"2026-06-18","code":"bull_quiet","baselineCode":"bull_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"牛市低波","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.96,"transition":{"pressure":14.4,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"sideways_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"震荡高波","probabilities":{"bull_quiet":0.3688,"sideways_volatile":0.3103,"bull_volatile":0.2841,"bear_volatile":0.0368},"triggers":["20D trend efficiency 0.04"]},"thesis":"稳步上行、低波动、相关性下降，适合横截面 alpha 和分散化多头。","drivers":["13 周 SPY 收益 13.2%","VIX 16.4","行业相关 0.21"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":0.00673,"spyOpen":751.85,"spyHigh":756.68,"spyLow":739.22,"spyClose":746.74,"ret4w":0.00741,"ret13w":0.13177,"realizedVol20":0.1579,"vixClose":16.4,"sectorCorrelation20":0.2058,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.5107,"drawdown52w":-0.01689,"trendEfficiency20":0.0369,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.01249,"downVolumeZ20":1.8621,"downVolumeZ63":0.8058,"distributionDay":false,"distributionDate":null,"shockDownDay":false}},{"weekEnd":"2026-06-26","code":"bull_quiet","baselineCode":"bull_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"牛市低波","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.54,"transition":{"pressure":25.3,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"bull_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"牛市高波","probabilities":{"bull_quiet":0.3453,"bull_volatile":0.3414,"sideways_volatile":0.1703,"bear_volatile":0.143},"triggers":["SPY weekly selloff -2.4%","below MA50"]},"thesis":"稳步上行、低波动、相关性下降，适合横截面 alpha 和分散化多头。","drivers":["13 周 SPY 收益 13%","VIX 18.4","行业相关 0.18"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":-0.02377,"spyOpen":747.7,"spyHigh":750.18,"spyLow":716.58,"spyClose":728.99,"ret4w":-0.03394,"ret13w":0.13006,"realizedVol20":0.163,"vixClose":18.41,"sectorCorrelation20":0.1792,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.3768,"drawdown52w":-0.04026,"trendEfficiency20":0.2348,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.01452,"downVolumeZ20":0.5714,"downVolumeZ63":0.5595,"distributionDay":false,"distributionDate":null,"shockDownDay":false}},{"weekEnd":"2026-07-02","code":"bull_quiet","baselineCode":"bull_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"牛市低波","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.96,"transition":{"pressure":8.5,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"bull_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"牛市高波","probabilities":{"bull_quiet":0.4136,"bull_volatile":0.2856,"sideways_volatile":0.2627,"bear_volatile":0.0381},"triggers":[]},"thesis":"稳步上行、低波动、相关性下降，适合横截面 alpha 和分散化多头。","drivers":["13 周 SPY 收益 13.7%","VIX 16.1","行业相关 0.17"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":0.02166,"spyOpen":736.52,"spyHigh":751.31,"spyLow":732.09,"spyClose":744.78,"ret4w":-0.01254,"ret13w":0.13665,"realizedVol20":0.1749,"vixClose":16.15,"sectorCorrelation20":0.1676,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.4115,"drawdown52w":-0.01947,"trendEfficiency20":0.0975,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.00135,"downVolumeZ20":-0.4683,"downVolumeZ63":0.1248,"distributionDay":false,"distributionDate":null,"shockDownDay":false}},{"weekEnd":"2026-07-10","code":"bull_quiet","baselineCode":"bull_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"牛市低波","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.95,"transition":{"pressure":4.1,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"bull_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"牛市高波","probabilities":{"bull_quiet":0.4976,"bull_volatile":0.2837,"sideways_volatile":0.1753,"bear_volatile":0.0433},"triggers":[]},"thesis":"稳步上行、低波动、相关性下降，适合横截面 alpha 和分散化多头。","drivers":["13 周 SPY 收益 11%","VIX 15","行业相关 0.16"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":0.01366,"spyOpen":748.74,"spyHigh":755.42,"spyLow":739.51,"spyClose":754.95,"ret4w":0.04069,"ret13w":0.11037,"realizedVol20":0.1423,"vixClose":15.03,"sectorCorrelation20":0.1578,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.4342,"drawdown52w":-0.00608,"trendEfficiency20":0.176,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.00475,"downVolumeZ20":-1.3756,"downVolumeZ63":-0.7866,"distributionDay":false,"distributionDate":null,"shockDownDay":false}},{"weekEnd":"2026-07-17","code":"bull_quiet","baselineCode":"bull_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"牛市低波","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.63,"transition":{"pressure":22,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"sideways_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"震荡高波","probabilities":{"sideways_volatile":0.3538,"bull_quiet":0.3483,"bull_volatile":0.1613,"bear_volatile":0.1366},"triggers":["20D trend efficiency 0.04","below MA50"]},"thesis":"稳步上行、低波动、相关性下降，适合横截面 alpha 和分散化多头。","drivers":["13 周 SPY 收益 5.9%","VIX 18.8","行业相关 0.07"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":-0.01544,"spyOpen":752.47,"spyHigh":755.58,"spyLow":740.8,"spyClose":743.29,"ret4w":0.00314,"ret13w":0.05933,"realizedVol20":0.1169,"vixClose":18.77,"sectorCorrelation20":0.0741,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.4215,"drawdown52w":-0.02143,"trendEfficiency20":0.0407,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.0099,"downVolumeZ20":0.6853,"downVolumeZ63":0.7615,"distributionDay":false,"distributionDate":null,"shockDownDay":false}},{"weekEnd":"2026-07-24","code":"bull_quiet","baselineCode":"bull_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"牛市低波","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.56,"transition":{"pressure":17.1,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"sideways_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"震荡高波","probabilities":{"bull_quiet":0.4019,"sideways_volatile":0.314,"bear_volatile":0.1461,"bull_volatile":0.1379},"triggers":["below MA50"]},"thesis":"稳步上行、低波动、相关性下降，适合横截面 alpha 和分散化多头。","drivers":["13 周 SPY 收益 4.3%","VIX 18.6","行业相关 0.1"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":-0.00587,"spyOpen":747.06,"spyHigh":750.02,"spyLow":735.21,"spyClose":738.93,"ret4w":0.00631,"ret13w":0.04302,"realizedVol20":0.1137,"vixClose":18.58,"sectorCorrelation20":0.0977,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.3834,"drawdown52w":-0.02717,"trendEfficiency20":0.1226,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.01235,"downVolumeZ20":0.7077,"downVolumeZ63":0.2667,"distributionDay":false,"distributionDate":null,"shockDownDay":false}},{"weekEnd":"2026-07-31","code":"sideways_quiet","baselineCode":"sideways_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"震荡低波","labelZh":"震荡低波","label":"Sideways Quiet","confidence":0.59,"transition":{"pressure":31.7,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"sideways_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"震荡高波","probabilities":{"sideways_volatile":0.3835,"sideways_quiet":0.3228,"bull_volatile":0.2509,"bear_volatile":0.0429},"triggers":["high-volume down day z=3.3","20D trend efficiency 0.05"]},"thesis":"方向弱、波动低，指数在区间内消化，行业轮动比 beta 更重要。","drivers":["VIX 16","行业相关 0.11"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":0.01096,"spyOpen":744.91,"spyHigh":748.89,"spyLow":729.1,"spyClose":747.03,"ret4w":0.00302,"ret13w":0.03948,"realizedVol20":0.1237,"vixClose":15.99,"sectorCorrelation20":0.1087,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.4096,"drawdown52w":-0.01651,"trendEfficiency20":0.0481,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.01539,"downVolumeZ20":3.2675,"downVolumeZ63":1.4011,"distributionDay":true,"distributionDate":"2026-07-29","shockDownDay":false}},{"weekEnd":"2026-08-07","code":"bull_quiet","baselineCode":"bull_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"牛市低波","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.73,"transition":{"pressure":0.3,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"bull_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"牛市高波","probabilities":{"bull_quiet":0.5926,"bull_volatile":0.1957,"sideways_volatile":0.1624,"bear_volatile":0.0492},"triggers":[]},"thesis":"稳步上行、低波动、相关性下降，适合横截面 alpha 和分散化多头。","drivers":["13 周 SPY 收益 5.7%","VIX 14.9","行业相关 0.12"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":0.03511,"spyOpen":749.44,"spyHigh":776.85,"spyLow":748.8,"spyClose":773.26,"ret4w":0.02425,"ret13w":0.05697,"realizedVol20":0.1401,"vixClose":14.9,"sectorCorrelation20":0.1172,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.3922,"drawdown52w":0,"trendEfficiency20":0.245,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.002,"downVolumeZ20":-0.4402,"downVolumeZ63":-0.6357,"distributionDay":false,"distributionDate":null,"shockDownDay":false}},{"weekEnd":"2026-08-14","code":"bull_quiet","baselineCode":"bull_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"牛市低波","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.59,"transition":{"pressure":0,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"bull_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"牛市高波","probabilities":{"bull_quiet":0.6487,"bull_volatile":0.1634,"sideways_volatile":0.1342,"bear_volatile":0.0537},"triggers":[]},"thesis":"稳步上行、低波动、相关性下降，适合横截面 alpha 和分散化多头。","drivers":["13 周 SPY 收益 3.8%","VIX 14.3","行业相关 0.1"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":0.00398,"spyOpen":772.6,"spyHigh":779.37,"spyLow":769.2,"spyClose":776.34,"ret4w":0.04446,"ret13w":0.03765,"realizedVol20":0.1302,"vixClose":14.25,"sectorCorrelation20":0.0971,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.3924,"drawdown52w":-0.00198,"trendEfficiency20":0.379,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.0032,"downVolumeZ20":-0.9047,"downVolumeZ63":-1.0133,"distributionDay":false,"distributionDate":null,"shockDownDay":false}},{"weekEnd":"2026-08-17","code":"bull_quiet","baselineCode":"bull_quiet","baselineLabelZh":"牛市低波","labelZh":"牛市低波","label":"Bull Quiet","confidence":0.68,"transition":{"pressure":0,"status":"stable","switched":false,"likelyNext":"bull_volatile","likelyNextLabelZh":"牛市高波","probabilities":{"bull_quiet":0.6261,"bull_volatile":0.1769,"sideways_volatile":0.1451,"bear_volatile":0.0518},"triggers":[]},"thesis":"稳步上行、低波动、相关性下降，适合横截面 alpha 和分散化多头。","drivers":["13 周 SPY 收益 4.5%","VIX 15.2","行业相关 0.1"],"metrics":{"weeklyReturn":-0.00473,"spyOpen":776.18,"spyHigh":776.77,"spyLow":772.51,"spyClose":772.67,"ret4w":0.04121,"ret13w":0.04532,"realizedVol20":0.1318,"vixClose":15.19,"sectorCorrelation20":0.1009,"equityBondCorrelation63":0.3663,"drawdown52w":-0.0067,"trendEfficiency20":0.2759,"maxDownDailyReturn":-0.00473,"downVolumeZ20":-1.0026,"downVolumeZ63":-1.2371,"distributionDay":false,"distributionDate":null,"shockDownDay":false}}],"links":{"app":"https://regimealpha.chenzixin.uk","fullJson":"https://regimealpha.chenzixin.uk/data/regimes.json","mcp":"https://regimealpha.chenzixin.uk/mcp","exportApi":"https://regimealpha.chenzixin.uk/api/export"}}